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Is
Trimble a Loose Cannon?
The
loyalist community has watched with simmering anger, and a growing sense of
alienation, over the last few years as David Trimble and his coterie of “yes
men” have embarked upon what can only be described as one disastrous policy
initiative after another. The culmination of this policy orientation has been
the recent initiative, if it can be called such, to have a referendum on the
issue of the constitutional status of Northern Ireland. Many within the loyalist
community now believe that David Trimble has become a loose cannon, detached
from the reality of political life in Northern Ireland and engaging in
opportunism of the worst kind, that which places the interests of a political
party, and his leadership of it, above the interests of an entire country and
people.
Time
and time again the strategies and policies of David Trimble and the Ulster
Unionist party have proved fruitless. Take for example the much-hyped handover
of IRA weapons that was alleged to have occurred. The issue of decommissioning
many have argued should never have been allowed to have become an issue in the
first place as it only played into the hands of the IRA and Sinn Fein as their
spin masters went to work turning the issue into one of British military
withdrawal, normalization and demilitarization. As it was decommissioning did
become an issue but rather than argue from the morally correct point of view
that Sinn Fein should be excluded because they are little more than the
political face of terrorism it was decided to place the emphasis upon the
handover of weapons. And so the decommissioning bandwagon began to roll.
For
several years the loyalist people endured a media driven debate about an issue
that for them meant very little. It meant little whether or not the IRA handed
over weapons, as everyone knew that it was unlikely to dent the capabilities of
the IRA and that if needed those armaments that had been decommissioned could be
replaced from various sympathetic sources from within the web of international
terrorism. At every twist and turn Sinn Fein milked the issue for all it was
worth gaining concession after concession, particularly with regard to prisoners
and those on the run. The culmination was an amnesty for all republican
fugitives and those suspected of having committed acts of terrorism before the
Good Friday Agreement. It was only through turn of events in America, namely the
tragedy of the 29th September, and the resulting pressure from
America that Sinn Fein moved as soon as they did. The result was that they had
gained many concessions and in the end come out as the good guys who had moved
mountains in the pursuit of peace in Ireland.
The
latest policy initiative from David Trimble is little more than dangerous
political opportunism. He has called for a border poll, a poll on the
constitutional status of Northern Ireland, on the day of elections. The question
that everyone must ask is if this is just mere coincidence?
If recent electoral trends were replicated at the forthcoming election
than David Trimble’s position as First Minister would become untenable as all
the political maneuvers of the Alliance Party and Womens Coalition could not
hope to overturn the bloc of unionist assembly members who would be opposed to
his reelection. Could it be that David Trimble is playing a dangerous game with
our constitutional future in the hope that:
·
The issue of the election becomes secondary and therefore the desire to
register a protest vote against the Ulster Unionist party is dissipated as the
more important issue of the constitutional question takes primacy, as does the
need for unionist unity in the face of the threat of a united Ireland.
·
The Referendum on the border would also create a much larger than usual
unionist turn out at the polling stations. This would benefit the Ulster
Unionist party, as in the referendum vote on the Good Friday agreement. Many of
those who would be voting would be people who would not have perhaps cast a vote
in decades but would be inclined towards support of the Ulster Unionist party.
The result would be a skewed election result with the Ulster unionist party
coming in on the back of votes that would normally never have been cast at an
election.
There
is, however, one very important flaw in the reasoning of David Trimble, one that
perhaps in the pursuit of pure political gain he has not considered: the very
real chance that such a vote could go against the unionist people.
Let
us be realistic there is a real chance that such a vote could go against the
unionist people. Many will of course reply that the unionist community is the
majority community and as such the vote should be nothing more than a formality.
As the astute loyalist will know commonsense rarely equates with political
reality in Northern Ireland. Before any loyalist could even consider backing
such a foolhardy proposal they should consider the following points:
·
The fact that in terms of percentages the last three decades have seen a
convergence in terms of the respective numbers of each community. The commanding
majority of the unionist population is now not as commanding as it once was. In
1991 the PPRU (Policy, Planning & Research Unit) estimated the size of the
Catholic population to be over 42%. This is over a decade ago and since then
levels of Protestant emigration have increased. Twice as many Protestant than
Catholic University graduates now emigrate. This demographic decline of the
Protestant people is demonstrated by the fact that all over Northern Ireland
towns that had a Protestant majority are now Catholic, or those that had a
substantial Protestant population have now little more than a nominal Protestant
presence. For example: Newry, Keady, Castlewellan, Londonderry (West Bank),
Bessbrook, Donaghmore, Moy, Dunloy and areas of Belfast such as West and North
Belfast.
·
The fact that in constituencies across Northern Ireland the laws that
govern elections are broken at will by Sinn Fein and their supporters. To put it
simply votes are rigged with widespread impersonation and polling stations
opened for longer hours than is stipulated. For example, the General Election
vote in Fermanagh and South Tyrone when Sinn Fein supporters used physical force
to keep a polling station open after the stipulated time by law. It would be
likely that in areas such as South Armagh and other republican strongholds that
the police would be powerless to stop such vote rigging with the result that
republican supporters would have extra time in which to register their votes.
Given the low key police presence at such polling stations, and their
unwillingness to intervene in electoral fraud it is likely that all stops would
be pulled out with regard to the maxim: vote early vote often. Unlike a local or
constituency election where such fraud only skews the vote in the given
constituency, with a referendum vote all votes count against the eventual
overall total.
·
The fact that in some areas that are predominantly unionist there is a
history of low voter turnout with high apathy amongst voters. For example in the
2001 General Election the voter turnout in North Down (a predominantly
Protestant area) was just 58%. Given the large number of elections and the
current disillusionment with politics in general can it be relied upon that
unionist voters in such areas will turn out en masse? Even given the importance
of the question being put to the voters it simply may not stir the necessary
numbers into voting especially if they feel they have nothing to fear or more
importantly lose in terms of financial gain by a vote in favour of a united
Ireland.
It
is against the backdrop of these important questions that the call by David
Trimble for a referendum should make people in the loyalist community nervous.
As it is the genie is already out of the bottle as the two main nationalist
parties, the SDLP and Sinn Fein have both backed the call for the election. Even
if they are unsuccessful they will use the expected close run nature of the poll
to suggest and affirm their argument that a United Ireland is but a matter of
time and all they need do is simply put that little bit more pressure on a
British government. Trimble has made the claim that the referendum will:
'…kill
the issue for a generation because I am quite sure the result will be an
overwhelming endorsement of the union.'
The
likelihood is, however, the issue will remain and the tensions it will generate
within our society will tear the very fabric of our society apart. It may well
lead to the death not of the issue for a generation but of a generation itself.
As the number game comes to a head now is not the time to raise the political
temperature. The astute political observer would not let opportunism cloud the
bigger picture but as we all know there is little insight or substance to the
political philosophy of those who continue to lend their support to a man who
has become little more than a loose cannon.